Electricity demand to increase

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THE Electricity Cost of Service Study (COSS) projected that peak electricity demand will increase by 95 percent from 2,143 MW in 2020 to 4,169 MW in 2040.
 
According to the government Green paper on the findings and recommendations of the 2021 electricity cost of service study published in August 2022, this demand would be largely driven by residential customers, with a projected growth rate of 1.3 percent annually.
 
The Green paper states that the current generation is not sufficient and would require additional 2 investments in generation and transmission to meet the projected demand over this period.
 
The paper further states that government position accepts the recommendation of the COSS that the projected demand will increase over the period 2020-2040.
 
“However this load forecast will be updated to account for among other priorities, the New Dawn Government’s desire to attain universal access to electricity; stimulate agricultural production; support industrial development; achieve copper production of 3 million tonnes over the next decade and establish Zambia as a hub for electricity trade. With these assumptions, recent projections show that the peak demand is estimated at 8,000 Mega Watts (MW) by 2030 and about 10, 000 MW by 2040. This is a tremendous increase from the projections of the Cost of Service Study. Therefore, national load forecast demand is envisaged to be driven by the mining and agriculture demand not necessarily residential customers,” read the paper.
 
The 2021 Electricity Sector Cost of Service study (COSS) commenced in December 2019 and was undertaken by the Energy Market and Regulatory Consultants (EMRC) of the United Kingdom, an independent consultant, with financing from the African Development Bank (AfDB) at the cost of US$ 592,000.
 
The study was concluded in December 2021.
 
The aim of the study was to determine the Zambian power system’s full cost of electricity supply and in turn determine the appropriate tariff levels that would enable the power utilities improve their service and meet the growing demand.
 
This considered efficient operating costs and prudent investment while providing for an appropriate return on assets.
 
By Oliver Chisenga
 
Kalemba August 2, 2022
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